Tuesday, February 24, 2009

Let's Not Get All Chicken Little..Yet

If you're like any Mets, Jets or Dayton Flyers fan you have that sense of impending doom anytime your team starts to slip up. It's the "other shoe is dropping" theory or better broken down, "The Charlie Brown Theory." Let me explain:

Charlie Brown and Lucy have this recurring gag that Charlie is going to kick the football while Lucy holds. Lucy knowingly sets Chuck up by saying she promises not to yank the ball away at the last second, making our dear Charlie fall. Charlie believes her, lines up the kick and as he's ready to wind up on the ball, Lucy pulls it away causing him to fall. This has occured god knows how many times and yet he still continues to try and kick that ball. This is how Dayton Flyer fans feel, we come so close and someone yanks the ball away from us.'

This is probably how you feel now after losing to St. Louis. In this case I'll be the reasonable one..

The Sky Is Not Falling!

Here's why:

1) St. Louis was not a bad loss - This is a much better team than anyone (including the Billikens) thinks. They are by far the hottest team in the A-14. Their RPI is close to and will likely dip under 100.

2) The Flyers might lose at Rhode Island..and that's ok. Once again, the A-14 is much better than is given credit for. Just look at the RPI rankings, the folowing teams are in the top 100:

Xavier, Dayton, Temple, St. Joe's, Rhode Island..even Duquesne!

Even the mainstream media realizes this. If you have checked Bracketology (and are like me and check 8 different ones, 3 times a day), you'll notice the Flyers have not sniffed the last four out column and have been pretty steady in the seeds between 7-10. Realize this, Dayton's body of work is much better and more solid than it was last year. They have already won 9 games in the conference, last year they won 8 during the regular season. They have also been more consistent (not shooting or scoring, but winning).

3) These are the new Dayton Flyers - They're a resilient bunch. They haven't had a losing streak, let alone back to back losses this year. They're hungry and confident. They're undefeated at home.

4) They're playing with house money - Raise your hand if you thought at the beginning of the season this team, with this schedule, would even be a consideration for an NCAA bid..ok hand down Bucky. This was an NIT team that was a year away. Maybe they've overachieved this year, or maybe we were wrong for selling them short.

Will I be a nervous wreck on Wed. night, absolutely, but if the Flyers go 1-1 in the next 2 games, things will be fine. If they don't..well than the hand goes in the blender


Anonymous said...

8 brackets? come on now...

check out the bracket matrix! he puts up every known bracket on the internet!


I hope you're right about this team...

Mr. Blackburn said...

I am raising my hand.

Anonymous said...

meh. i'm just tired of watching them look like middle schoolers on the road. mentally fragile? or maybe it's...coaching---no no, couldn't be that.

Adam said...

*Raises hand

I knew they'd be a better team than last year, and said as much. Binnie and Sandoval or Williams, Lowery, and Johnson? Granted CJ and Lowery bettered expectations, but even back in October you knew they'd be an upgrade.

As much as I love the man, losing BRob really wasn't a big deal, either.

Uncreative Commuter said...

I can't say I expected a NCAA berth, honestly. Before the season I was expecting another NIT team. I just didn't know where the scoring was going to come from (I still don't).

But now that this team is so close to a NCAA berth, I don't feel they're playing with "house money" anymore. If they collapse and don't get in, it's be a huge failure.

Secaur said...

Gotta echo that. Reason 4 is such a cop out. Who cares what we expected in October before any games had been played? If you are 23-3 on February 20th and somehow manage to play your way out of the tourney by March 7th, that's an epic failure in my book, regardless of what expectations once were.

The thing is I actually buy Reason 3, which is totally unlike me. I think the Flyers drop the 2 road games, win the 2 at home, and win one or 2 in the A10 Tourney. That puts the good guys at 26-7 or 27-7 with an RPI I'm guessing somewhere in the 30s. Get there, and you're a lock to be dancing.

Uncreative Commuter said...

Just get to the Tournament, please. That's all I want this year.

Preferably in Greensboro, Philadelphia or (maybe) Kansas City so I can go.

Flyer"72 said...

In a week, we will be wondering what we worried about.

I hope.